Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Osborn, T.J., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Methodology, Predictor Network, Target Season and Target Domain, Journal of Climate, 18, 2308-2329, 2005.
A multiproxy study purporting to show similar temperature history as in Mann, Bradley & Hughes (1998) using the RegEM method.
Abstract
Results are presented from a set of experiments designed to investigate factors that may influence proxy-based reconstructions of large-scale temperature patterns in past centuries. The factors investigated include 1) the method used to assimilate proxy data into a climate reconstruction, 2) the proxy data network used, 3) the target season, and 4) the spatial domain of the reconstruction. Estimates of hemispheric-mean temperature are formed through spatial averaging of reconstructed temperature patterns that are based on either the local calibration of proxy and instrumental data or a more elaborate multivariate climate field reconstruction approach. The experiments compare results based on the global multiproxy dataset used by Mann and coworkers, with results obtained using the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (NH) maximum latewood tree-ring density set used by Briffa and coworkers. Mean temperature reconstructions are compared for the full NH (Tropics and extratropics, land and ocean) and extratropical continents only, withvarying target seasons (cold-season half year, warm-season half year, and annual mean). The comparisons demonstrate dependence of reconstructions on seasonal, spatial, and methodological considerations, emphasizing the primary importance of the target region and seasonal window of the reconstruction. The comparisons support the generally robust nature of several previously published estimates of NH mean temperature changes in past centuries and suggest that further improvements in reconstructive skill are most likely to arise from an emphasis on the quality, rather than quantity, of available proxy data.
Available ![[WWW]](http://wikispot.org/wiki/eggheadbeta/img/sycamore-www.png){kind=small}
here and here (free).
See also
"Smerdon, J.E., and A. Kaplan (2007), Comment on "Testing the fidelity of methods used in proxy-based reconstructions of past climate": The role of the standardization interval, by M.E. Mann, S. Rutherford, E. Wahl, and C. Ammann, Journal of Climate, 20(22), 5666-5670." Available here and here (free).
"Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., Ammann, C. (2007), Reply to Comments on “Testing the Fidelity of Methods Used in Proxy-based Reconstructions of Past Climate” by Smerdon and Kaplan, J. Climate, 20, 5671-5674." Available here and here (free).
Related Climate Audit posts
Re-Visiting RegEM: Rutherford et al 2005 CA Splicing in Rutherford et al 2005 Jean S on Rutherford et al 2005 Rutherford 2005 and the Divergence Problem Rutherford et al (2005) Collation Errors Rutherford, Mann et al (2005)
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