Recent Changes for "Hockey Stick Controversy" - Climate Audit 101

Hockey Stick Controversy

Tillman — 2008-11-03 21:31:51

Yes, correct -- thanks. Typo in original

Differences for Hockey Stick Controversy

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- ''"My own short-form summary of our views on MBH98 is this. MBH98 made 5 main warranties: statistical skill, robustness, careful proxy selection, appropriate methodology and relatively even geographical balance. These warranties were fundamental to its acceptance. (My background is in business and I think in contract terms.) All their warranties have been breached. Their reconstruction failed critical cross-validation tests (we have publicized the R2 failure, but it fails others as well); it is not robust [to] the presence/absence of bristlecone pines; the supposedly carefully '''chosen''' proxies included bristlecone growth, which specialists say is contaminated by 20th century fertilization; their methodology includes a wildly biased “principal components” methodology (which is not actually a principal components method). The hockey stick is an imprint of bristlecone growth rate and reflects a non-temperature proxy from an isolated geographic region of the U.S.A."'' --[http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1083 Steve McIntyre]	+ ''"My own short-form summary of our views on MBH98 is this. MBH98 made 5 main warranties: statistical skill, robustness, careful proxy selection, appropriate methodology and relatively even geographical balance. These warranties were fundamental to its acceptance. (My background is in business and I think in contract terms.) All their warranties have been breached. Their reconstruction failed critical cross-validation tests (we have publicized the R2 failure, but it fails others as well); it is not robust [to] the presence/absence of bristlecone pines; the supposedly carefully chosen proxies included bristlecone growth, which specialists say is contaminated by 20th century fertilization; their methodology includes a wildly biased “principal components” methodology (which is not actually a principal components method). The hockey stick is an imprint of bristlecone growth rate and reflects a non-temperature proxy from an isolated geographic region of the U.S.A."'' --[http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1083 Steve McIntyre]

Hockey Stick Controversy

2008-11-03 10:23:07

Minor missing word problem as shown in bold. Is chosen correct?

Differences for Hockey Stick Controversy

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- ''"My own short-form summary of our views on MBH98 is this. MBH98 made 5 main warranties: statistical skill, robustness, careful proxy selection, appropriate methodology and relatively even geographical balance. These warranties were fundamental to its acceptance. (My background is in business and I think in contract terms.) All their warranties have been breached. Their reconstruction failed critical cross-validation tests (we have publicized the R2 failure, but it fails others as well); it is not robust [to] the presence/absence of bristlecone pines; the supposedly carefully proxies included bristlecone growth, which specialists say is contaminated by 20th century fertilization; their methodology includes a wildly biased “principal components” methodology (which is not actually a principal components method). The hockey stick is an imprint of bristlecone growth rate and reflects a non-temperature proxy from an isolated geographic region of the U.S.A."'' --[http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1083 Steve McIntyre]	+ ''"My own short-form summary of our views on MBH98 is this. MBH98 made 5 main warranties: statistical skill, robustness, careful proxy selection, appropriate methodology and relatively even geographical balance. These warranties were fundamental to its acceptance. (My background is in business and I think in contract terms.) All their warranties have been breached. Their reconstruction failed critical cross-validation tests (we have publicized the R2 failure, but it fails others as well); it is not robust [to] the presence/absence of bristlecone pines; the supposedly carefully '''chosen''' proxies included bristlecone growth, which specialists say is contaminated by 20th century fertilization; their methodology includes a wildly biased “principal components” methodology (which is not actually a principal components method). The hockey stick is an imprint of bristlecone growth rate and reflects a non-temperature proxy from an isolated geographic region of the U.S.A."'' --[http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1083 Steve McIntyre]
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	+ ''Italic text''

Hockey Stick Controversy

KarlMogel — 2007-12-16 00:25:16

Italic for quote, I suggest uploading a copyright-free image of the hockey stick

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- "My own short-form summary of our views on MBH98 is this. MBH98 made 5 main warranties: statistical skill, robustness, careful proxy selection, appropriate methodology and relatively even geographical balance. These warranties were fundamental to its acceptance. (My background is in business and I think in contract terms.) All their warranties have been breached. Their reconstruction failed critical cross-validation tests (we have publicized the R2 failure, but it fails others as well); it is not robust [to] the presence/absence of bristlecone pines; the supposedly carefully proxies included bristlecone growth, which specialists say is contaminated by 20th century fertilization; their methodology includes a wildly biased “principal components” methodology (which is not actually a principal components method). The hockey stick is an imprint of bristlecone growth rate and reflects a non-temperature proxy from an isolated geographic region of the U.S.A." --[http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1083 Steve McIntyre]	+ ''"My own short-form summary of our views on MBH98 is this. MBH98 made 5 main warranties: statistical skill, robustness, careful proxy selection, appropriate methodology and relatively even geographical balance. These warranties were fundamental to its acceptance. (My background is in business and I think in contract terms.) All their warranties have been breached. Their reconstruction failed critical cross-validation tests (we have publicized the R2 failure, but it fails others as well); it is not robust [to] the presence/absence of bristlecone pines; the supposedly carefully proxies included bristlecone growth, which specialists say is contaminated by 20th century fertilization; their methodology includes a wildly biased “principal components” methodology (which is not actually a principal components method). The hockey stick is an imprint of bristlecone growth rate and reflects a non-temperature proxy from an isolated geographic region of the U.S.A."'' --[http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1083 Steve McIntyre]

Hockey Stick Controversy

2007-12-10 08:47:42

Differences for Hockey Stick Controversy

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- "My own short-form summary of our views on MBH98 is this. MBH98 made 5 main warranties: statistical skill, robustness, careful proxy selection, appropriate methodology and relatively even geographical balance. These warranties were fundamental to its acceptance. (My background is in business and I think in contract terms.) All their warranties have been breached. Their reconstruction failed critical cross-validation tests (we have publicized the R2 failure, but it fails others as well); it is not robust the presence/absence of bristlecone pines; the supposedly carefully proxies included bristlecone growth, which specialists say is contaminated by 20th century fertilization; their methodology includes a wildly biased “principal components” methodology (which is not actually a principal components method). The hockey stick is an imprint of bristlecone growth rate and reflects a non-temperature proxy from an isolated geographic region of the U.S.A." --[http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1083 Steve McIntyre]	+ "My own short-form summary of our views on MBH98 is this. MBH98 made 5 main warranties: statistical skill, robustness, careful proxy selection, appropriate methodology and relatively even geographical balance. These warranties were fundamental to its acceptance. (My background is in business and I think in contract terms.) All their warranties have been breached. Their reconstruction failed critical cross-validation tests (we have publicized the R2 failure, but it fails others as well); it is not robust [to] the presence/absence of bristlecone pines; the supposedly carefully proxies included bristlecone growth, which specialists say is contaminated by 20th century fertilization; their methodology includes a wildly biased “principal components” methodology (which is not actually a principal components method). The hockey stick is an imprint of bristlecone growth rate and reflects a non-temperature proxy from an isolated geographic region of the U.S.A." --[http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1083 Steve McIntyre]
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- The following are some of the major issues involved with MBH98 proxies:	+ The following are some of the major issues involved with MBH98 proxies, most of which are still problematic as they apply to recent studies as well (see article for specifics).

Hockey Stick Controversy

Tillman — 2007-12-09 17:54:20

add SM MBH 98 quote

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- Steve McIntyre investigated this study and has found a startling number of questionable and outright erroneous methods in MBH98. The following are some of the major issues involved with MBH98 proxies:	+ "My own short-form summary of our views on MBH98 is this. MBH98 made 5 main warranties: statistical skill, robustness, careful proxy selection, appropriate methodology and relatively even geographical balance. These warranties were fundamental to its acceptance. (My background is in business and I think in contract terms.) All their warranties have been breached. Their reconstruction failed critical cross-validation tests (we have publicized the R2 failure, but it fails others as well); it is not robust the presence/absence of bristlecone pines; the supposedly carefully proxies included bristlecone growth, which specialists say is contaminated by 20th century fertilization; their methodology includes a wildly biased “principal components” methodology (which is not actually a principal components method). The hockey stick is an imprint of bristlecone growth rate and reflects a non-temperature proxy from an isolated geographic region of the U.S.A." --[http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1083 Steve McIntyre] + + The following are some of the major issues involved with MBH98 proxies:
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- === [A useful compendium of links to related papers compiled by Steve McIntyre] ===	+ === A useful compendium of links to related papers compiled by Steve McIntyre ===

Hockey Stick Controversy

GeorgeCastanza — 2007-12-08 10:07:05

minor -- rewording.

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- === [A useful compendium of papers links compiled by Steve McIntyre] ===	+ === [A useful compendium of links to related papers compiled by Steve McIntyre] ===

Hockey Stick Controversy

DaveDardinger — 2007-12-07 01:20:27

added Steve's list of Hockey Stick links

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	+ + === [A useful compendium of papers links compiled by Steve McIntyre] === + + [http://www.climateaudit.org/?page_id=354 Hockey Stick Studies ]

Hockey Stick Controversy

jkearns — 2007-12-03 01:10:18

add links

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- The "Hockey Stick" has played a very significant role in debate over recent global warming and its causes over the past decade. A seminal paper by Mann, Bradley and Hughes in 1998 (MBH98) used temperature histories said to be contained in varying sources (proxies) to reconstruct the temperatures of the past millenium. In doing so, MBH98 concluded that temperatures were relatively constant until about 1900 when temperatures skyrocketed. The graph is called a "Hockey Stick" because the reconstructed temperature curve is shaped like a hockey stick.	+ The "Hockey Stick" has played a very significant role in debate over recent global warming and its causes over the past decade. A seminal paper by ["Mann, Bradley & Hughes (1998)"] (MBH98) used temperature histories said to be contained in varying sources (proxies) to reconstruct the temperatures of the past millenium. In doing so, MBH98 concluded that temperatures were relatively constant until about 1900 when temperatures skyrocketed. The graph is called a "Hockey Stick" because the reconstructed temperature curve is shaped like a hockey stick.

Hockey Stick Controversy

GeorgeCastanza — 2007-11-30 19:38:07

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	+ + ["Statistical Analysis (multiproxy studies)"]

Hockey Stick Controversy

rossnixon — 2007-11-29 14:39:53

minor edit - punctuation

Differences for Hockey Stick Controversy

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- The "Hockey Stick" has played a very significant role in debate over recent global warming and its causes over the past decade. A seminal paper by Mann, Bradley and Hughes in 1998 (MBH98) used temperature histories said to be contained in varying sources (proxies) to reconstruct the temperatures of the past millenium; in doing so, MBH98 concluded that temperatures were relatively constant until about 1900 when temperatures skyrocketed. The graph is called a "Hockey Stick" because the reconstructed temperature curve is shaped like a hockey stick.	+ The "Hockey Stick" has played a very significant role in debate over recent global warming and its causes over the past decade. A seminal paper by Mann, Bradley and Hughes in 1998 (MBH98) used temperature histories said to be contained in varying sources (proxies) to reconstruct the temperatures of the past millenium. In doing so, MBH98 concluded that temperatures were relatively constant until about 1900 when temperatures skyrocketed. The graph is called a "Hockey Stick" because the reconstructed temperature curve is shaped like a hockey stick.

Hockey Stick Controversy

jpittman — 2007-11-27 19:04:36

for clarity and intro of proxy issues. Erase "with MBH98 proxies" if wrong

Differences for Hockey Stick Controversy

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- The "Hockey Stick" has played a very significant role in debate over recent global warming and its causes over the past decade. A seminal paper by Mann, Bradley and Hughes in 1998 (MBH98) used temperature histories said to be contained in varying sources to reconstruct the temperatures of the past millenium; in doing so, MBH98 show that temperatures were relatively constant until about 1900 when temperatures skyrocketed. The graph is called a "Hockey Stick" because the temperature curve is shaped like a hockey stick.	+ The "Hockey Stick" has played a very significant role in debate over recent global warming and its causes over the past decade. A seminal paper by Mann, Bradley and Hughes in 1998 (MBH98) used temperature histories said to be contained in varying sources (proxies) to reconstruct the temperatures of the past millenium; in doing so, MBH98 concluded that temperatures were relatively constant until about 1900 when temperatures skyrocketed. The graph is called a "Hockey Stick" because the reconstructed temperature curve is shaped like a hockey stick.
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- Steve McIntyre investigated this study and has found a startling number of questionable and outright erroneous methods in MBH98. The following are some of the major issues involved:	+ Steve McIntyre investigated this study and has found a startling number of questionable and outright erroneous methods in MBH98. The following are some of the major issues involved with MBH98 proxies:

Hockey Stick Controversy

JasonAller — 2007-11-26 21:28:46

Renamed from "Hockey Stick Controversey" (spelling)

Differences for Hockey Stick Controversy

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	+ The "Hockey Stick" has played a very significant role in debate over recent global warming and its causes over the past decade. A seminal paper by Mann, Bradley and Hughes in 1998 (MBH98) used temperature histories said to be contained in varying sources to reconstruct the temperatures of the past millenium; in doing so, MBH98 show that temperatures were relatively constant until about 1900 when temperatures skyrocketed. The graph is called a "Hockey Stick" because the temperature curve is shaped like a hockey stick. + + Steve McIntyre investigated this study and has found a startling number of questionable and outright erroneous methods in MBH98. The following are some of the major issues involved: + + ["Tree Rings"] + + ["Ice Cores"]