Recent Changes for "Climate Models" - Climate Audit 101http://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_ModelsRecent Changes of the page "Climate Models" on Climate Audit 101.en-us Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2008-01-27 12:06:28jkearnsreword <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 21: </td> <td> Line 21: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2658 Hansen in Antarctica]: Compares ["Hansen et al. (1988)"]'s model projections with actual temperatures in Antarctica. </td> <td> <span>+</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2658 Hansen in Antarctica]: Compares ["Hansen et al. (1988)"]'s model projections with actual temperature<span>&nbsp;observation</span>s in <span>["</span>Antarctica<span>"]</span>. </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2008-01-27 12:05:08jkearnsadded Hansen in Antarctica post <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 20: </td> <td> Line 20: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> <span>+ <br> + [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2658 Hansen in Antarctica]: Compares ["Hansen et al. (1988)"]'s model projections with actual temperatures in Antarctica.</span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2008-01-27 12:02:09jkearnsadded latest post: RSS Corrects 2007 Error <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 20: </td> <td> Line 20: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> <span>+ <br> + [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2648 RSS Corrects 2007 Error]: The error correction is discussed in relation to ["Hansen et al. (1988)"], along with some new information regarding comparing satellite and surface temperatures provided by J Christy.</span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2008-01-20 22:00:39jkearnsadded link <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 43: </td> <td> Line 43: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=796 Hansen and Model Reliability] - Compares recent temperatures with older model predictions. </td> <td> <span>+</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=796 Hansen and Model Reliability] - Compares recent temperatures with older model predictions<span>&nbsp;from ["Hansen et al</span>.<span>&nbsp;(1988)"].</span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2008-01-20 21:58:33jkearnslinked thread <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 23: </td> <td> Line 23: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2629 Pielke Comparison of Trends 1990-2007] is a discussion thread based on [http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/001330temperature_trends_1.html Pielke's post] comparing Hansen 1988, and all IPCC model accuracy with temperatures from different sources to 2007. </td> <td> <span>+</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2629 Pielke Comparison of Trends 1990-2007] is a discussion thread based on [http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/001330temperature_trends_1.html Pielke's post] comparing <span>["</span>Hansen <span>et al. (</span>1988<span>)"]</span>, and all IPCC model accuracy with temperatures from different sources to 2007. </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2008-01-20 21:56:50jkearnsadded a few more posts <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 21: </td> <td> Line 21: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2630 Hansen Scenarios A and B - Revised] is a further look at ["Hansen (1988)"] scenarios, breaking down each forcing prediction (CO2, CH4, etc) and how well they held up over time. </td> <td> <span>+</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2630 Hansen Scenarios A and B - Revised] is a further look at ["Hansen<span>&nbsp;et al.</span> (1988)"] scenarios, breaking down each forcing prediction (CO2, CH4, etc) and how well they held up over time. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 25: </td> <td> Line 25: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2621 Hansen Scenarios A and B - Original] The original post on ["Hansen (1988)"] scenarios, this post was updated and the newer revision should be consulted [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2630 here]. </td> <td> <span>+</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2621 Hansen Scenarios A and B - Original]<span>:</span> The original post on ["Hansen<span>&nbsp;et al.</span> (1988)"] scenarios, this post was updated and the newer revision should be consulted [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2630 here].<span><br> + <br> + [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2611 Hansen GHG Concentration Projections]: is a first look at various ["Hansen et al. (1988)"] and IPCC forcing predictions and how well they've held up.<br> + <br> + [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2602 Thoughts on Hansen et al 1988]: Takes an initial look at ["Hansen et al. (1988)"] and its scenarios' relations to current temperatures. The Hansen model seems to predict a larger temperature increase than occurred.</span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2008-01-20 21:49:50jkearnsadded Pielke link <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 23: </td> <td> Line 23: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2629 Pielke Comparison of Trends 1990-2007] is a discussion thread based on Pielke's post comparing Hansen 1988, and all IPCC model accuracy with temperatures from different sources to 2007. </td> <td> <span>+</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2629 Pielke Comparison of Trends 1990-2007] is a discussion thread based on <span>[http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/001330temperature_trends_1.html </span>Pielke's post<span>]</span> comparing Hansen 1988, and all IPCC model accuracy with temperatures from different sources to 2007. </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2008-01-20 21:48:39jkearnslinked threads <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 15: </td> <td> Line 15: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> [http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/308.htm IPCC 2001 Chapter 8] discusses model evaluation. Armstrong &amp; Green 2007 evaluated the forecasting skill of the IPCC models and said "We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts to support global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder." this paper was briefly [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1807 discussed on CA]. </td> <td> <span>+</span> [http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/308.htm IPCC 2001 Chapter 8] discusses model evaluation. <span>["</span>Armstrong &amp; Green <span>(</span>2007<span>)"]</span> evaluated the forecasting skill of the IPCC models and said "We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts to support global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder." this paper was briefly [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1807 discussed on CA]. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 21: </td> <td> Line 21: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2630 Hansen Scenarios A and B - Revised] is a further look at Hansen 1988 scenarios, breaking down each forcing prediction (CO2, CH4, etc) and how well they held up over time. </td> <td> <span>+</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2630 Hansen Scenarios A and B - Revised] is a further look at <span>["</span>Hansen <span>(</span>1988<span>)"]</span> scenarios, breaking down each forcing prediction (CO2, CH4, etc) and how well they held up over time. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 25: </td> <td> Line 25: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2621 Hansen Scenarios A and B - Original] The original post on Hansen<span>'s </span>1988 scenarios, this post was updated and the newer revision should be consulted [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2630 here]. </td> <td> <span>+</span> [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2621 Hansen Scenarios A and B - Original] The original post on <span>["</span>Hansen<span>&nbsp;(</span>1988<span>)"]</span> scenarios, this post was updated and the newer revision should be consulted [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2630 here]. </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2008-01-20 21:45:47jkearnsadded newest posts <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 20: </td> <td> Line 20: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> <span>+ <br> + [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2630 Hansen Scenarios A and B - Revised] is a further look at Hansen 1988 scenarios, breaking down each forcing prediction (CO2, CH4, etc) and how well they held up over time.<br> + <br> + [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2629 Pielke Comparison of Trends 1990-2007] is a discussion thread based on Pielke's post comparing Hansen 1988, and all IPCC model accuracy with temperatures from different sources to 2007.<br> + <br> + [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2621 Hansen Scenarios A and B - Original] The original post on Hansen's 1988 scenarios, this post was updated and the newer revision should be consulted [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2630 here].</span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2008-01-14 21:14:11jkearnstypo <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 31: </td> <td> Line 31: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> In [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2475 Kiehl (2007) on Tuning GCMs] CA summarizes and discusses some key points of the paper including; that there are no standard datasets for ozone, aerosols or natural forcing factors (all prominent features of moden models), the magnitude of applied anthropogenic total forcing compensates for the model sensitivity, and GCMs may do little more than embody certain key assumptions. </td> <td> <span>+</span> In [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2475 Kiehl (2007) on Tuning GCMs] CA summarizes and discusses some key points of the paper including; that there are no standard datasets for ozone, aerosols or natural forcing factors (all prominent features of mode<span>r</span>n models), the magnitude of applied anthropogenic total forcing compensates for the model sensitivity, and GCMs may do little more than embody certain key assumptions. </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2008-01-14 21:13:33jkearnsadded links to recent modeling posts <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 23: </td> <td> Line 23: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> <span>+ [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2565 AR4: “ad hoc tuning of radiative parameters”] discusses the unscientific tuning of some (4?) AR4 IPCC GCMs.<br> + <br> + [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2564 AR4: “Now-Classic” Results on Cloud Uncertainty are “Unsettling”] explores the statement that "They produced global average surface temperature changes (due to doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration) ranging from 1.9°C to 5.4°C, simply by altering the way that cloud radiative properties were treated in the model."<br> + <br> + [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2562 IPCC and Radiative Forcing #2: 1992-AR2]<br> + <br> + [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2560 IPCC on Radiative Forcing #1: AR1(1990)]<br> + </span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2008-01-14 21:03:54jkearnsadded most recent post: Pielke Jr on IPCC Predictions <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 21: </td> <td> Line 21: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> <span>+ [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2599 Pielke Jr on IPCC Predictions] is a discussion thread based upon Pielke Jr's post showing that 1990-92 IPCC GCMs have overestimated temperature increase due to global warming through 2007 when compared to surface and satellite temperature records.<br> + </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 27: </td> <td> Line 29: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> <span>+ </span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-12-04 22:21:45jkearnsfix typo <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 21: </td> <td> Line 21: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> In [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2475 Kiehl (2007) on Tuning GCMs] CA summarizes and discusses some key points of the paper including; that there are no standard datasets for ozone, aerosols or natural forcing factors (all prominent features of moden models), the magnitude of applied anthropogenic total forcing compensates for the model sensitivity, and GCMs may do little more than embody certain key assumptions.<span>.</span> </td> <td> <span>+</span> In [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2475 Kiehl (2007) on Tuning GCMs] CA summarizes and discusses some key points of the paper including; that there are no standard datasets for ozone, aerosols or natural forcing factors (all prominent features of moden models), the magnitude of applied anthropogenic total forcing compensates for the model sensitivity, and GCMs may do little more than embody certain key assumptions. </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-12-04 22:21:27jkearnsreformatted to fit other pages <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 17: </td> <td> Line 17: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>- CA has a [http://www.climateaudit.org/?cat=25 section on modeling], it has discussed [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=796 Hansen and Model Reliability] by comparing recent temperatures with older model predictions, CA has also [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=593 backtested a Hansen and Gavin Schmidt model] and discussed the [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=466 complexity of the Navier-Stokes equations] behind some models.</span> </td> <td> <span>+ CA posts on GCMs<br> + <br> + CA has a [http://www.climateaudit.org/?cat=25 section on modeling]</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 21: </td> <td> Line 23: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> <span>+ [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=796 Hansen and Model Reliability] - Compares recent temperatures with older model predictions.<br> + [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=593 backtested a Hansen and Gavin Schmidt model]<br> + [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=466 complexity of the Navier-Stokes equations] behind some models.<br> + <br> + many more exist but are not entered yet.<br> + </span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-12-01 22:32:05jkearnsadded latest post Kiehl 2007 <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 19: </td> <td> Line 19: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> <span>+ In [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2475 Kiehl (2007) on Tuning GCMs] CA summarizes and discusses some key points of the paper including; that there are no standard datasets for ozone, aerosols or natural forcing factors (all prominent features of moden models), the magnitude of applied anthropogenic total forcing compensates for the model sensitivity, and GCMs may do little more than embody certain key assumptions..<br> + </span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-11-29 22:47:08jkearnsadded modeling section <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 17: </td> <td> Line 17: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> CA has discussed [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=796 Hansen and Model Reliability] by comparing recent temperatures with older model predictions, CA has also [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=593 backtested a Hansen and Gavin Schmidt model] and discussed the [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=466 complexity of the Navier-Stokes equations] behind some models. </td> <td> <span>+</span> CA<span>&nbsp;has a [http://www.climateaudit.org/?cat=25 section on modeling], it</span> has discussed [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=796 Hansen and Model Reliability] by comparing recent temperatures with older model predictions, CA has also [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=593 backtested a Hansen and Gavin Schmidt model] and discussed the [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=466 complexity of the Navier-Stokes equations] behind some models. </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-11-29 22:38:56jkearnsadd more links to CA <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 17: </td> <td> Line 17: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> <span>+ CA has discussed [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=796 Hansen and Model Reliability] by comparing recent temperatures with older model predictions, CA has also [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=593 backtested a Hansen and Gavin Schmidt model] and discussed the [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=466 complexity of the Navier-Stokes equations] behind some models.<br> + </span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-11-29 02:23:47GeorgeCastanzaanswered the question <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 9: </td> <td> Line 9: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> It is important to note that GCMs are [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1781 run independent of temperature measurements] [http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/2007/06/a_note_from_a_nasa_climate_res.html ref]. <span>So a</span> change to a temperature record will not affect GCM output. However, the GCM trends are often compared to measured temperature and other trends<span>. [Please clarif</span>y<span>: Are temperature measurements used in model </span>v<span>alidation?]</span> </td> <td> <span>+</span> It is important to note that GCMs are [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1781 run independent of temperature measurements] [http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/2007/06/a_note_from_a_nasa_climate_res.html ref]. <span>Thus,</span> change<span>s</span> to a temperature record will not affect GCM output. However, the GCM trends are often compared to measured temperature and other trends<span>; if the trends were found to be sufficientl</span>y<span>&nbsp;di</span>v<span>ergent, the GCM would require retooling until it became reasonably in line with actual recorded temperatures. In light of this, although recorded temperatures are not inputs into GCMs, they can and do affect model validation.</span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-11-29 01:01:32 <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 9: </td> <td> Line 9: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> It is important to note that GCMs are [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1781 run independent of temperature measurements] [http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/2007/06/a_note_from_a_nasa_climate_res.html ref]. So a change to a temperature record will not affect GCM output. However, the GCM trends are often compared to measured temperature and other trends. [<span>&lt;--</span>Please clarify: Are temperature measurements used in model validation?] </td> <td> <span>+</span> It is important to note that GCMs are [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1781 run independent of temperature measurements] [http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/2007/06/a_note_from_a_nasa_climate_res.html ref]. So a change to a temperature record will not affect GCM output. However, the GCM trends are often compared to measured temperature and other trends. [Please clarify: Are temperature measurements used in model validation?] </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-11-29 00:59:02added a question to be answered (hopefully) - Clayton B <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 9: </td> <td> Line 9: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> It is important to note that GCMs are [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1781 run independent of temperature measurements] [http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/2007/06/a_note_from_a_nasa_climate_res.html ref]. So a change to a temperature record will not affect GCM output. However, the GCM trends are often compared to measured temperature and other trends. </td> <td> <span>+</span> It is important to note that GCMs are [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1781 run independent of temperature measurements] [http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/2007/06/a_note_from_a_nasa_climate_res.html ref]. So a change to a temperature record will not affect GCM output. However, the GCM trends are often compared to measured temperature and other trends.<span>&nbsp;&nbsp;[&lt;--Please clarify: Are temperature measurements used in model validation?]</span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-11-28 21:53:58jkearnsadded Armstrong and Green CA post <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 15: </td> <td> Line 15: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>- [http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/308.htm IPCC 2001 Chapter 8] discusses model evaluation.</span> </td> <td> <span>+ [http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/308.htm IPCC 2001 Chapter 8] discusses model evaluation. Armstrong &amp; Green 2007 evaluated the forecasting skill of the IPCC models and said "We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts to support global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder." this paper was briefly [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1807 discussed on CA].</span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-11-28 21:49:21jkearnsadded CA links <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 9: </td> <td> Line 9: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> It is important to note that GCMs are <span>run independent of temperature measurements</span> [http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/2007/06/a_note_from_a_nasa_climate_res.html ref]. So a change to a temperature record will not affect GCM output. However, the GCM trends are often compared to measured temperature and other trends. </td> <td> <span>+</span> It is important to note that GCMs are <span>[http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1781 run independent of temperature measurements]</span> [http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/2007/06/a_note_from_a_nasa_climate_res.html ref]. So a change to a temperature record will not affect GCM output. However, the GCM trends are often compared to measured temperature and other trends. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 13: </td> <td> Line 13: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> ''None of the models used by IPCC are initialized to the observed state and none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate. In particular, the state of the oceans, sea ice, and soil moisture has no relationship to the observed state at any recent time in any of the IPCC models. There is neither an El Niño sequence nor any Pacific Decadal Oscillation that replicates the recent past; yet these are critical modes of variability that affect Pacific rim countries and beyond. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, that may depend on the thermohaline circulation and thus ocean currents in the Atlantic, is not set up to match today’s state, but it is a critical component of the Atlantic hurricanes and it undoubtedly affects forecasts for the next decade from Brazil to Europe. Moreover, the starting climate state in several of the models may depart significantly from the real climate owing to model errors. I postulate that regional climate change is impossible to deal with properly unless the models are initialized.''[http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2007/06/predictions_of_climate.html ref] </td> <td> <span>+ </span> ''None of the models used by IPCC are initialized to the observed state and none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate. In particular, the state of the oceans, sea ice, and soil moisture has no relationship to the observed state at any recent time in any of the IPCC models. There is neither an El Niño sequence nor any Pacific Decadal Oscillation that replicates the recent past; yet these are critical modes of variability that affect Pacific rim countries and beyond. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, that may depend on the thermohaline circulation and thus ocean currents in the Atlantic, is not set up to match today’s state, but it is a critical component of the Atlantic hurricanes and it undoubtedly affects forecasts for the next decade from Brazil to Europe. Moreover, the starting climate state in several of the models may depart significantly from the real climate owing to model errors. I postulate that regional climate change is impossible to deal with properly unless the models are initialized.''[http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2007/06/predictions_of_climate.html ref] </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-11-27 23:22:07jkearnsadded IPCC 2001 ref re: model evaluation, will try to find IPCC 2007 later <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 15: </td> <td> Line 15: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> <span>+ [http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/308.htm IPCC 2001 Chapter 8] discusses model evaluation.<br> + </span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-11-27 23:11:54jkearnsadd more details re GCMs <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 3: </td> <td> Line 3: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> A reference to a climate model can refer to<span>&nbsp;either</span> a global climate model (GCM) or a regional climate model (RCM). </td> <td> <span>+</span> A reference to a climate model can refer to a global climate model (GCM) or a regional climate model (RCM). </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 6: </td> <td> Line 6: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> <span>+ <br> + GCMs can be divided into three groups, atmospheric GCMs (AGCM), oceanic GCMs (OGCM), or coupled atmospheric and oceanic GCMs (AOGCM).</span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-11-27 23:00:43jkearnsformatting - 3rd time is a charm <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 7: </td> <td> Line 7: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> It is important to note that GCMs are run independent of temperature measurements [<span>"</span>http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/2007/06/a_note_from_a_nasa_climate_res.html<span>" ^</span>ref]. So a change to a temperature record will not affect GCM output. However, the GCM trends are often compared to measured temperature and other trends. </td> <td> <span>+</span> It is important to note that GCMs are run independent of temperature measurements [http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/2007/06/a_note_from_a_nasa_climate_res.html<span>&nbsp;</span>ref]. So a change to a temperature record will not affect GCM output. However, the GCM trends are often compared to measured temperature and other trends. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 11: </td> <td> Line 11: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> ''None of the models used by IPCC are initialized to the observed state and none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate. In particular, the state of the oceans, sea ice, and soil moisture has no relationship to the observed state at any recent time in any of the IPCC models. There is neither an El Niño sequence nor any Pacific Decadal Oscillation that replicates the recent past; yet these are critical modes of variability that affect Pacific rim countries and beyond. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, that may depend on the thermohaline circulation and thus ocean currents in the Atlantic, is not set up to match today’s state, but it is a critical component of the Atlantic hurricanes and it undoubtedly affects forecasts for the next decade from Brazil to Europe. Moreover, the starting climate state in several of the models may depart significantly from the real climate owing to model errors. I postulate that regional climate change is impossible to deal with properly unless the models are initialized.''[<span>"</span>http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2007/06/predictions_of_climate.html<span>" ^</span>ref] </td> <td> <span>+</span> ''None of the models used by IPCC are initialized to the observed state and none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate. In particular, the state of the oceans, sea ice, and soil moisture has no relationship to the observed state at any recent time in any of the IPCC models. There is neither an El Niño sequence nor any Pacific Decadal Oscillation that replicates the recent past; yet these are critical modes of variability that affect Pacific rim countries and beyond. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, that may depend on the thermohaline circulation and thus ocean currents in the Atlantic, is not set up to match today’s state, but it is a critical component of the Atlantic hurricanes and it undoubtedly affects forecasts for the next decade from Brazil to Europe. Moreover, the starting climate state in several of the models may depart significantly from the real climate owing to model errors. I postulate that regional climate change is impossible to deal with properly unless the models are initialized.''[http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2007/06/predictions_of_climate.html<span>&nbsp;</span>ref] </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-11-27 22:59:48jkearnsformatting again, sorry, getting used to it <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 7: </td> <td> Line 7: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> It is important to note that GCMs are run independent of temperature measurements [http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/2007/06/a_note_from_a_nasa_climate_res.html]. So a change to a temperature record will not affect GCM output. However, the GCM trends are often compared to measured temperature and other trends. </td> <td> <span>+</span> It is important to note that GCMs are run independent of temperature measurements [<span>"</span>http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/2007/06/a_note_from_a_nasa_climate_res.html<span>" ^ref</span>]. So a change to a temperature record will not affect GCM output. However, the GCM trends are often compared to measured temperature and other trends. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 11: </td> <td> Line 11: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>- </span>None of the models used by IPCC are initialized to the observed state and none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate. In particular, the state of the oceans, sea ice, and soil moisture has no relationship to the observed state at any recent time in any of the IPCC models. There is neither an El Niño sequence nor any Pacific Decadal Oscillation that replicates the recent past; yet these are critical modes of variability that affect Pacific rim countries and beyond. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, that may depend on the thermohaline circulation and thus ocean currents in the Atlantic, is not set up to match today’s state, but it is a critical component of the Atlantic hurricanes and it undoubtedly affects forecasts for the next decade from Brazil to Europe. Moreover, the starting climate state in several of the models may depart significantly from the real climate owing to model errors. I postulate that regional climate change is impossible to deal with properly unless the models are initialized.[http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2007/06/predictions_of_climate.html] </td> <td> <span>+ ''</span>None of the models used by IPCC are initialized to the observed state and none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate. In particular, the state of the oceans, sea ice, and soil moisture has no relationship to the observed state at any recent time in any of the IPCC models. There is neither an El Niño sequence nor any Pacific Decadal Oscillation that replicates the recent past; yet these are critical modes of variability that affect Pacific rim countries and beyond. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, that may depend on the thermohaline circulation and thus ocean currents in the Atlantic, is not set up to match today’s state, but it is a critical component of the Atlantic hurricanes and it undoubtedly affects forecasts for the next decade from Brazil to Europe. Moreover, the starting climate state in several of the models may depart significantly from the real climate owing to model errors. I postulate that regional climate change is impossible to deal with properly unless the models are initialized.<span>''</span>[<span>"</span>http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2007/06/predictions_of_climate.html<span>" ^ref</span>] </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-11-27 22:56:00jkearnsformatted <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 1: </td> <td> Line 1: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> <span>+ = Climate Models =<br> + </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 3: </td> <td> Line 5: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> = Global Climate Models = </td> <td> <span>+</span> <span>=</span>= Global Climate Models =<span>=</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 11: </td> <td> Line 13: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>-</span> = Regional Climate Models = </td> <td> <span>+</span> <span>=</span>= Regional Climate Models =<span>=</span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-11-27 22:55:26jkearnsadded info re: GCMs <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 2: </td> <td> Line 2: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> <span>+ <br> + = Global Climate Models =<br> + <br> + It is important to note that GCMs are run independent of temperature measurements [http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/2007/06/a_note_from_a_nasa_climate_res.html]. So a change to a temperature record will not affect GCM output. However, the GCM trends are often compared to measured temperature and other trends.<br> + <br> + Furthermore, Kevin Trenberth states:<br> + <br> + None of the models used by IPCC are initialized to the observed state and none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate. In particular, the state of the oceans, sea ice, and soil moisture has no relationship to the observed state at any recent time in any of the IPCC models. There is neither an El Niño sequence nor any Pacific Decadal Oscillation that replicates the recent past; yet these are critical modes of variability that affect Pacific rim countries and beyond. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, that may depend on the thermohaline circulation and thus ocean currents in the Atlantic, is not set up to match today’s state, but it is a critical component of the Atlantic hurricanes and it undoubtedly affects forecasts for the next decade from Brazil to Europe. Moreover, the starting climate state in several of the models may depart significantly from the real climate owing to model errors. I postulate that regional climate change is impossible to deal with properly unless the models are initialized.[http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2007/06/predictions_of_climate.html]<br> + <br> + = Regional Climate Models =</span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-11-27 22:36:13jkearnsGCM and RCM <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 1: </td> <td> Line 1: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <span>- Describe Climate Models here.</span> </td> <td> <span>+ A reference to a climate model can refer to either a global climate model (GCM) or a regional climate model (RCM).</span> </td> </tr> </table> </div> Climate Modelshttp://climateaudit101.wikispot.org/Climate_Models2007-11-26 22:23:04GeorgeCastanza <div id="content" class="wikipage content"> Differences for Climate Models<p><strong></strong></p><table> <tr> <td> <span> Deletions are marked with - . </span> </td> <td> <span> Additions are marked with +. </span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Line 1: </td> <td> Line 1: </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> <span>+ Describe Climate Models here.</span> </td> </tr> </table> </div>